With apologies to former President George W. Bush for using one of his favorite words, environmental groups are accusing the U.S. Energy Information (EIA) of “misunderestimating” its projections for renewable energy production and capacity through 2040.
A coalition of nearly 100 green groups—among them the Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies, Environmental Defense Fund, Environmental Law & Policy Center, Geothermal Energy Association, International Center for Technology Assessment, Natural Resources Defense Council, Union of Concerned Scientists, SUN DAY Campaign, and World Wildlife Fund—sent a letter on Sept. 10 to Adam Sieminski, administrator of the EIA, expressing concern that the agency had been publishing estimates that have been “unreasonably low and have not been borne out by actual experience” in its “Annual Energy Outlook” report.
The group points out that the data in EIA's most recent "Electric Power Monthly," released on August 22, 2013, indicates that in a “reference case,” renewable energy sources accounted for 14.2 percent of net generation during the first six months of 2013. (“And this number is likely on the low side since it does not fully capture the contribution from distributed renewables that are not grid-connected,” the letter notes.)
The environmental advocates take issue with this figure—because, they say that, if it is valid, then renewable energy sources already have exceed EIA’s lower projection of 14 percent for 2040.
What’s more, they state, “in 18 months, [EIA has expanded its projections] from 13 percent to 14.2 percent (i.e., nearly halfway to EIA’s higher [reference case] estimate of 16 percent by 2040.”
“It seems highly implausible that it will now take another 27 years to grow from 14.2 percent to 16 percent,” the groups state.
Accordingly, they requested that EIA "re-evaluate the assumptions and methodology being used to develop the renewable energy forecasts for the ‘Annual Energy Outlook’ and, at the least, provide projections that more closely reflect the real-world growth rates of recent years."
EIA Explanation
Although Green Technology World made several attempts to contact the EIA for comment on the letter, the agency had not returned calls or e-mails at press time.
However, in the “Annual Energy Outlook 2013” report, the EIA explained that “the rate of growth in renewable electricity generation is sensitive to several factors”— including natural gas prices and the possible implementation of policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. If future natural gas prices are lower than projected in the reference case…the share of renewable generation would grow more slowly, to only 14 percent in 2040.
“Alternatively,” the agency stated, “if broad-based policies to reduce GHG emissions were enacted, renewable generation would be expected to grow more rapidly. In three cases that assume GHG emissions fees that range from $10 to $25 per metric ton in 2014 and rise by 5 percent per year through 2040 (GHG10, GHG15, and GHG25), the renewable share of total U.S. electricity generation in 2040 ranges from 23 percent to 31 percent.”
Edited by Alisen Downey