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Renewable Energy a Factor in 56 Percent Rise in Global Energy Usage by 2040
Green Technology Featured Articles
July 25, 2013

Renewable Energy a Factor in 56 Percent Rise in Global Energy Usage by 2040

By Cheryl Kaften
TMCnet Contributor

Over the next 30 years, world energy consumption will increase by 56 percent, largely driven by growth in the developing world, according to “International Energy Outlook 2013,” a report just released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Specifically, global energy demand will increase to 820 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus)—up from 524 quadrillion Btus in 2010. That’s an awful lot of power, considering that one quadrillion Btus would fill 172 million barrels of crude oil.

"Rising prosperity in China and India is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand. These two countries combined account for half the world's total increase in energy usage through 2040. This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. Indeed, China’s energy consumption will double that of the United States by 2040.

Clean-fuel technology also will play an important role in the outlook, with renewable energy and nuclear power expected to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent annually—faster than fossil fuels over the forecast period. The analysts estimate that 5.4 trillion kilowatt hours (kWh) of new renewable generation will be added over the projection period. 


Nearly 80 percent of the increase in renewable electricity generation will be driven by hydropower (52 percent) and wind power (28 percent). Most of the growth in hydroelectric generation (82 percent) will be seen in the developing nations, while more than half of the growth in wind generation (52 percent) will occur in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development )countries .

However, fossil fuels will continue to supply nearly 80 percent of world energy capacity through 2040. Up until 2030, natural gas will be the fastest-growing fossil fuel—with consumption rising at 1.7 percent per year—as global supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coal bed methane increase.

After 2030, coal consumption will increase faster than liquid fuel (petroleum) usage, which the report attributes to two factors: increases in China's consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquid fuels demand attributed to: (1) slow growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries, and (2) sustained high oil prices. Liquid fuels will account for 28 percent of demand in 2040, down from 34 percent in 2010.

Based on current policies and regulations governing production and use of fossil fuels, the IEA projects that global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise to 45 billion metric tons in 2040—a 46 percent increase from 2010. Economic growth in developing nations, fueled by a continued reliance on fossil fuels, will be responsible for most of the emissions increases.

The industrial sector will continue to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption and is projected to consume more than half of global delivered energy in 2040.

Finally, during the study period, cumulative electricity generation will almost double, rising to 39 trillion kWh from 20.2 trillion in 2010.




Edited by Alisen Downey


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