Warning that the world is not on track to limit global temperature by 2 degrees Celsius within the next seven years, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) today urged governments to swiftly enact four energy policies that would keep climate goals alive without harming economic growth.
“Climate change has quite frankly slipped to the back burner of policy priorities. But the problem is not going away – quite the opposite,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said in London on June 10, as the agency announced the release of its latest special report, “World Energy Outlook:Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map
Noting that the energy sector accounts for around two-thirds of global greenhouse-gas emissions, she added: “This report shows that the path we are currently on is more likely to result in a temperature increase of between 3.6 °C and 5.3 °C, but also finds that much more can be done to tackle energy-sector emissions without jeopardizing economic growth, an important concern for many governments.”
The new IEA report presents the results of a “4-for-2 °C Scenario,” in which four energy policies are selected that can deliver significant emissions reductions by 2020, rely only on existing technologies, and have already been adopted successfully in several countries.
First, the agency recommends targeted energy efficiency measures that would reduce global energy-related emissions by 1.5 gigatons (Gt) in 2020, a level close to that of Russia today. These policies include: energy performance standards in buildings for lighting, new appliances, and for new heating and cooling equipment; in industry for motor systems; and, in transport for road vehicles. Around 60 percent of the global savings in emissions are from the buildings sector. In countries where these efficiency policies already exist—such as the European Union, Japan, the United States and China—they must be strengthened or extended. In addition, energy efficiency mandates must be introduced in other nations worldwide. All countries will need to take supporting actions to overcome the barriers to effective implementation. The additional global investment required would reach $200 billion in 2020, but would be more than offset by reduced spending on fuel bills.
Second, the report advises against the commissioning of new subcritical coal fire plants and warns that nations must limit the use of the least-efficient factories currently in operation. These actions, alone, would reduce emissions by 640 megatons (Mt) in 2020 and also help efforts to curb local air pollution.Globally, the use of such plants would be one-quarter lower than would otherwise be expected in 2020—and the share of renewable power generation would increase from around 20 percent in 2013 to 27 percent in 2020. Policies to reduce the role of inefficient coal power plants, such as emissions and air pollution standards and carbon prices, already exist in many countries. Under IEA’S “4-for-2 °C Scenario,” the largest emissions savings occur in China, the United States and India, all of which have a large coal-powered fleet.
Third, halvingmethane releases from upstream oil and gas operations by 2020 is feasible at affordable cost, the report says. Around 1.1 Gt CO2-eq of methane, a potent greenhouse-gas, was released in 2010 by the upstream oil and gas industry. These releases, through venting and flaring, are equivalent to twice the total natural gas production of Nigeria. Reducing the level of such releases into the atmosphere represents an effective complementary strategy to the reduction of CO2emissions. The necessary technologies are readily available, at relatively low cost, and policies are being adopted in some countries, such as the performance standards in the United States. The largest reductions achieved under the “4-for-2 °C Scenario” are in Russia, the Middle East, the United States and Africa.
The fourth and final part of the “4 for 2° Scenario” involves accelerated action toward a partial phase-out of fossil-fuel subsidies, in order to reduce CO2emissions by 360 Mt in 2020. Cumulatively, in 20ll, fossil-fuel subsidies reached US$523 billion— around six times the level of support to renewable energy. Currently, the agency points out, fully 15 percent of global CO2emissions receive an incentive of US$110 per ton in the form of fossil-fuel subsidies; while only 8 percent t are subject to a carbon price. Growing budget pressures strengthen the case for fossil-fuel subsidy reform in many importing and exporting countries and political support has been building in recent years. G20 and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member countries have committed to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies and many are moving ahead with implementation
Indeed, according to IEA Chief Economist Faith Birol, the report’s lead author, “We [have identified] a set of proven measures that could stop the growth in global energy-related emissions by the end of this decade at no net economic cost. Rapid and widespread adoption could act as a bridge to further action, buying precious time while international climate negotiations continue.”
Finally, the report warns that delaying stronger climate action until 2020 would come at a cost: UD$1.5 trillion in low-carbon investment would be avoided if no action were taken in the next seven years; however, US$5 trillion in additional investments would be required thereafter to get back on track.