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A Shell Scenario Sees Solar as World's Topmost Source of Energy by 2070
Green Technology Featured Articles
March 04, 2013

A Shell Scenario Sees Solar as World's Topmost Source of Energy by 2070

By Cheryl Kaften
TMCnet Contributor

In one of two future scenarios released recently by Royal Dutch Shell plc, based in The Hague, Netherlands, company planners predict that, by 2070, solar photovoltaic panels will become the world’s primary source of energy.

The New Lens scenarios—entitled “Mountains” and “Oceans”— look ahead as far as 2100 to explore the divergent ways in which the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different implications for society and the world’s energy system. One scenario sees cleaner-burning natural gas becoming the most important energy source globally by the 2030s and early action to limit carbon dioxide emissions. The other sees solar becoming the top energy source by about 2070, but with slower action to address the threat of climate change.


What they both agree on is that global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will drop to near zero by 2100, due to increasing use of technology that takes CO2 out of the atmosphere—for instance by burning biomass to produce electricity—and then stores the gas underground.

“These scenarios show how the choices made by governments, businesses and individuals in the next few years will have a major impact on the way the future unfolds,” said Shell CEO Peter Voser. “They highlight the need for business and government to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency.”

With the world’s population headed toward 9.5 billion by 2060 and the rapid growth of emerging economies lifting millions of people out of poverty for the first time, the scenarios project that world energy demand could double over the next 50 years. Each scenario dives into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.

Shell has a 40-year history of using scenario planning to explore possible future landscapes and aid strategic decision-making. The latest publication continues a tradition of sharing summaries of the scenarios to contribute to the public debate about possible ways to tackle some of society’s long-term challenges.

In related news, published on February 4 by Bloomberg (News - Alert), the Japan-based Shell division, Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K., and Ube Industries Ltd., both of Tokyo, plan to build and operate a 21 megawatt (MW) solar power station in western Japan. The companies set up a venture to start construction of the plant in Yamaguchi prefecture in April. The station will begin operations in July 2013. Solar Frontier K.K., a wholly owned unit of Showa Shell and a maker of thin-film solar panels, will supply panels for the plant.




Edited by Brooke Neuman


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