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September 12, 2012

500,000 Annual PEV Sales Seen in North America by 2020, with Ford as 'Top Seller'



Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are forecast to reach over 500,000 in annual sales throughout North America by 2020— 400,073 in the United States and 107,146 in Canada—according to a report just released by Boulder, Colorado-based Pike Research (News - Alert).  

Overall, sales of PEVs in the United States are expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30 percent between 2012 and 2020. California, New York, Florida and Texas will lead the way —however, by 2020; Hawaii is expected to have the highest concentration of PEVs out of total annual new vehicle sales, at 12.3 percent. 

According to the report, “Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts,” at that point, PEVs will represent 4.5 percent of total sales in the State of California sales; 3.5 percent of the total in New York; 1.9 percent in Florida; and 1.4 percent in Texas. Nationally, PEV sales are expected to reach 2.1 percent of the total market

Cumulatively, the New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland (Oregon) metropolitan areas will account for more than one-quarter (27 percent) of U.S. annual PEV sales by 2020—or 109,277 transactions. The combination of a large population area, early rollout schedules from vehicle manufacturers and positive consumer attitudes toward PEVs will result in strong CAGRs of 29 percent to 33 percent in these cities between 2012 and 2020.

In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which account for 75 percent of the Canadian population, will represent 97 percent of Canadian PEV sales by 2020. Toronto and Montreal will lead Canadian PEV sales.

In an earlier report, published during 2Q 2012 (“Plug-in Electric Vehicles”), Pike had noted that the frequently quoted goal of reaching one million PEVs on the road in the United States by 2015 would not be met. “Instead, the one million mark will be reached in early 2018,” said the analysts, although, “many of the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), suppliers, charging equipment and service providers, and other stakeholders interviewed for this report remain hopeful about reaching the one million goal soon after 2015—expecting one kind of market breakthrough or another.”

The analysts also predicted that the “first-mover advantage” owned by Nissan and General Motors (GM) would fade away in the next couple of years—and that preferences would shift to Toyota, Ford, and Honda (News - Alert)—“the brands that resonate most as providers of electric vehicles .”

As a result, they said, “Toyota will bypass Nissan and GM in North American PEV sales by 2013, and Ford will become the top seller as early as 2014. Ford will likely hold this position for the rest of the decade.”

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Edited by Brooke Neuman

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