With Record-High CO2 Emissions in 2010, It's Getting Hard to Turn Down the Heat

Energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2010 were the highest in history, according to the latest reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Based in Paris, the IEA is an autonomous organization that endeavors to ensure reliable, affordable, and clean energy for its 28 member countries (including the United States).

After a dip in 2009, which has been attributed to the global financial crisis, experts say that emissions have rocketed to a record 30.6 Gigatonnes (Gt) — a 5 percent jump from the previous record year, in 2008, when levels reached 29.3 Gt.

In addition, the IEA has estimated that 80 percent of projected emissions from the power sector in 2020 are irreversible, since they will come from power plants that are currently in place or already under construction.

“This significant increase in CO₂ emissions and the locking in of future emissions due to infrastructure investments represent a serious setback to our hopes of limiting the global rise in temperature to no more than 2ºC,” said Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist at the IEA who oversees the annual World Energy Outlook, the agency’s flagship publication.

Global leaders agreed to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2°C above pre-industrial levels at the United Nations climate change talks in Cancun in 2010. To achieve this goal, the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere must be limited to around 450 parts per million of CO₂-equivalent, only a 5 percent increase compared to an estimated 430 parts per million in 2000. The IEA’s 2010 World Energy Outlook set out the “450 Scenario,” an energy pathway consistent with achieving this goal, based on the emissions targets countries have agreed to reach by 2020. For this pathway to be achieved, global energy-related emissions in 2020 must not be greater than 32 Gt.

In short, this means that, over the next ten years, emissions must increase less in total than they did between 2009 and 2010.

“Our latest estimates are another wake-up call,” said Dr. Birol. “The world has edged incredibly close to the level of emissions that should not be reached until 2020 if the 2ºC target is to be attained. Given the shrinking room for maneuver in 2020, unless bold and decisive decisions are made very soon, it will be extremely challenging to succeed in achieving this global goal agreed in Cancun.”

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