Major players compete to enter Mozambique mobile market, says Onda Analytics

The government of Mozambique is expected to tender a third mobile licence by the end of 2009. Onda Analytics’ new report, Mozambique third mobile licence, assesses the opportunity for a third mobile operator in one of the poorest countries in the world. Current Mozambican GSM operators mcel and Vodacom will generate total revenues of USD388 million in 2009. This is forecast to grow by 80% in the six years to 2015, aided by the additional subscribers and revenue from a third operator. A successful third operator can expect to take an 18% share of total mobile service revenue by 2015.

Report lead author, Tom Harden (Partner) states that “with only Vodacom of the region’s main players already in Mozambique, it is likely that other major operators, such as MTN (News - Alert) and Zain will be watching the opportunity closely. Portugal Telecom has also already declared an interest in entering the Portuguese-speaking market.” Current mobile penetration stands at just 26%, leaving plenty of room for growth. Onda Analytics forecasts penetration to more than double, reaching 54% by 2015, driven by increased competition lowering tariffs and an increase in the addressable market, as the Mozambican economy grows.

Any new entrant will have to carefully consider the likely capital expenditure required to launch operations. Vodacom only recently became EBITDA-positive, having operated in the market for six years. According to Harden, “any new operator should look at how it can lower the investment required to get a network established. This could include could achieve lower capital and operational expenditure through network sharing or green network technology, saving fuel costs.” For further information regarding both Onda Analytics and the report, please visit http://www.ondaanalytics.com

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